For a background on how Mr. Zenawi marched to Somalia and
how Sheikh Hassan Dahir
Aweys declared a jihad against
see my early notes on the issue: http://aboutethiopia.com/a5-Somali-Issues-July-06.htm. As indicated in that piece the jihad should have been declared against Zenawi
instead of against
At any rate, the tyrant, Mr. Zenawi may yet cause
further bloodshed of Ethiopians for his ill advised and Senseless wars. Below
significant items that have developed in November, 2006 are briefly stated, and Ferguson's war ideas are summarized.
Item 1. November 19, 2006 a convoy of 80
Ethiopian vehicles was apparently heading for Baidoa
when a land mine destroyed two trucks and Islamic fighters opened fire on the
convoy some 50 miles southwest of Baidoa according to
eyewitnesses. Six Ethiopians soldiers
were killed and 20 were wounded. Subsequently, the convoy had made it to Baidoa.
Sources: (a) AP- November 20, 2006. http://kinijit.org/content.asp?ContentId=2099
2. On November
23, 2006 Mr. Zenawi determined that a "clear and present
danger" to his country has occurred and told his parliament to
authorize war against Islamist Somalis.
Sources (a) The Times,Jonathan
Clayton, Africa Correspondent, Nov.23, 2006, http://kinijit.org/content.asp?contentid=2111.
(b) Emmanuel Goujon , AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, November 24,
2006, ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia.
had ordered Beyene Petros
to provide a semblance of deliberation in the rubber stump parliament as Zenawi creats the conditions to obtain
a green light from his Western financiers to allow him to cause more trouble in
3. On November 24, 138 tracks of Ethiopian troops had reportedly
arrived in Baidoa. http://www.ethiomedia.com/
How does Zenawi’s effort gibe with
’s ideas of the coincidence of
four e’s that would help predict wars.
Mr. Zenawi efforts hasten an impending war in Ethiopia from Eastern Revival (the fourth e
of Ferguson) as the Western Empire wanes?
the 4 es
of Ferguson, which I summarize here
based on a televised public lecture.
I watched a public televised lecture by a
historian, Prof. Ferguson at Harvard about his book “The War of the World” on
8:AM ,11/19/06. More about him may be examined on www.niallferguson.org
The gist of his lecture was that conflicts of
the 20th century may be categorized by three e’s:
3) empire in decline,
and the other e is 4) eastern revival referring to the strengthening of
"Economic instability" is supposed
to dictate when the wars may be waged, whereas “ethnic disintegration” and
“empire in decline” would inform where the wars would be fought. He also said
that abundant young citizens, and “evil minded” leaders would fan conflicts and
murders in multiethinic societies even where there
might have been mixed marriages.
In his lecture and his answers to questions
raised from the audience he spoke of the Eastern revival more as a replacement
of western expansive domination.
He anticipates that the greatest conflicts
will focus on the Middle
I listened to him with the case of Ethiopia in mind. If his model is
correct, it appears that
Ethiopia is at an incipient war
with itself though some may not realize it.
And why? As an inevitable consequence of the
replacement of Western power by the revival of the East! But then,
Ethiopia wouldn't have been in trouble were it not for the three e's, which are of its making.
Neither the West nor the East created ethnic
groups of Ethiopia. If the Ethiopian society was alert, it would not have placed itself in
economic instability either. Clearly,
the uninformed and uninspiring imperial rule of Ethiopia
did not help either. The question is can
Ethiopians extricate themselves from the impending problem? They might.
They might if they recognize that they are in an incipient war among
themselves. They might if they become alert and know the roles taken by
some individuals and groups among themselves who might have been and might be
sustaining the incipient war. They must be alert and not permit their efforts
at salvation to be derailed by inimical entities, though they should negotiate
and try to entrain all facets of groupings.
Zenawi, the butcher of Ethiopians must be opposed by all Ethiopian and friends
His hand picked inquiry commission, whom he had empanelled through his rubber
stump parliament to investigate the post election murders of of civilians after Zenawi
declared that he taken full charge of security forces, had determined that 193 had
been killed in June and November 2005 because of excessive force used by the security
forces. Those determinations were revealed because the chairman, Judge
Frehiwot Samuel his deputy
a Judge Wolde-Michael Meshesha had fled Ethiopia.
According to Human Rights reports, Ato Birhanu Tsigu,
this did not include 65 other Ethiopians who were shot dead in prisons after
being rounded up during post-election demonstrations (ttp://www.ethiomedia.com/addfile/crimes_as_behavioral_pattern.html).