For a background on how Mr. Zenawi marched to Somalia and how Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys declared a jihad against Ethiopia see my early notes on the issue: As indicated in that piece the jihad should have been declared against Zenawi instead of against Ethiopia . At any rate, the tyrant, Mr. Zenawi may yet cause further bloodshed of Ethiopians for his ill advised and Senseless wars. Below significant items that have developed in November, 2006 are briefly stated, and Ferguson's war ideas are summarized.


Item 1.  November 19, 2006 a convoy of 80 Ethiopian vehicles was apparently heading for Baidoa when a land mine destroyed two trucks and Islamic fighters opened fire on the convoy some 50 miles southwest of Baidoa according to eyewitnesses.  Six Ethiopians soldiers were killed and 20 were wounded. Subsequently, the convoy had made it to Baidoa.

Sources: (a) AP- November 20, 2006.

(b)  Leonard Doyle, Foreign Editor, Published:  23 November 2006.


Item 2. On November 23, 2006 Mr. Zenawi determined that a "clear and present danger" to his country has occurred and told his parliament to authorize war against Islamist Somalis.

Sources (a) The Times,Jonathan Clayton, Africa Correspondent, Nov.23, 2006, (b) Emmanuel Goujon , AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, November 24, 2006, ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia.  Presumably Zenawi had ordered Beyene Petros to provide a semblance of deliberation in the rubber stump parliament as Zenawi creats the conditions to obtain a green light from his Western financiers to allow him to cause more trouble in Somalia.


Item 3. On  November 24, 138 tracks of Ethiopian troops had reportedly arrived in Baidoa.




How does Zenawi’s effort gibe with Ferguson ’s ideas of the coincidence of four e’s that would help predict wars.

Wouldn’t Mr. Zenawi efforts hasten an impending war in Ethiopia from Eastern Revival (the fourth e of Ferguson) as the Western Empire wanes?


Thumb through the 4 es of Ferguson, which I summarize here based on a televised public lecture.


I watched a public televised lecture by a historian, Prof. Ferguson at Harvard about his book “The War of the World” on c-span  about 8:AM ,11/19/06. More about him may be examined on


The gist of his lecture was that conflicts of the 20th century may be categorized by three e’s:

1) economic volatility,

2) ethnic disintegration,

3) empire in decline,

and the other e is 4) eastern revival referring to the strengthening of Asia .


"Economic instability" is supposed to dictate when the wars may be waged, whereas “ethnic disintegration” and “empire in decline” would inform where the wars would be fought. He also said that abundant young citizens, and “evil minded” leaders would fan conflicts and murders in multiethinic societies even where there might have been mixed marriages.


In his lecture and his answers to questions raised from the audience he spoke of the Eastern revival more as a replacement of western expansive domination.


He anticipates that the greatest conflicts will focus on the Middle East.


I listened to him with the case of Ethiopia in mind. If his model is correct, it appears that Ethiopia is at an incipient war with itself though some may not realize it.  And why? As an inevitable consequence of the replacement of Western power by the revival of the East! But then, Ethiopia wouldn't have been in trouble were it not for the three e's, which are of its making. 


HG’s comment

Neither the West nor the East created ethnic groups of Ethiopia. If the Ethiopian society was alert, it would not have placed itself in economic instability either.  Clearly, the uninformed and uninspiring imperial rule of Ethiopia did not help either.  The question is can Ethiopians extricate themselves from the impending problem?  They might.  They might if they recognize that they are in an incipient war among themselves.  They might if they become alert and know the roles taken by some individuals and groups among themselves who might have been and might be sustaining the incipient war. They must be alert and not permit their efforts at salvation to be derailed by inimical entities, though they should negotiate and try to entrain all facets of groupings. 


Zenawi, the butcher of Ethiopians must be opposed by all Ethiopian and friends of Ethiopia. His hand picked inquiry commission, whom he had empanelled through his rubber stump parliament to investigate the post election murders of of civilians after Zenawi declared that he taken full charge of security forces, had determined that 193 had been killed in June and November 2005 because of excessive force used by the security forces. Those determinations were revealed because the chairman, Judge Frehiwot Samuel his deputy a Judge Wolde-Michael Meshesha had fled Ethiopia.   According to Human Rights reports, Ato Birhanu Tsigu, this did not include 65 other Ethiopians who were shot dead in prisons after being rounded up during post-election demonstrations (ttp://


HG :11/25/06